Well, if you have specific concerns, I suggest contacting Blue Manchu with the observations. They might want to check your drops for any anomalies. I don't know if they log every drop ever. Checking the actual drops would go a long way towards ascertaining whether the system has any true-randomness-defeating deterministic properties and whether they occur on a single player basis or are more widespread. If anything was found, then the hunt for root causes could begin. Blue Manchu have said they use the Java Math.random() function for their randomness needs. link 1, link 2 If you like, you could run a program running that on your setup to see if anything funny turns up. Actually, scratch that - the drops are chosen by and on the server. Only Blue Manchu know how well that system actually works.
Your tags are for cards but those are items... looks like Sir Veza made the same mistake when commenting on them too. I have seen some weird things with the random drop function when I was doing tests of opening thousands of chests on the test server. Twice I had two of the same chest in a row from commons to epics. Not sure if it was coincidence or what but it seems very strange.
Assuming that the drops are truly random, there's no way to know. Knowing the exact chances of every item dropping, and running a few thousand (or even million) simulations, you could arrive at a bell curve of most likely values...but the actual value for any given player could fall anywhere within that curve, or even outside of it.
It does happen. I don't know that all players can catch it or take advantage of it the way boro or Sir Veza have. I've seen the same thing start off, but I've never farmed around it to test the theory. I will try the next time I see the signs.
You could probably calculate that to 95% probability from the data here: http://forums.cardhunter.com/threads/epic-chest-opening-log.4363/page-2#post-48259 (see also the rest of the thread). You'd need to extrapolate a bit from the data collected there but I think it's doable. In my sample, after opening about 3,000 chests three Legendary items were still missing. The data was gathered well before Attack of the Artifacts expansion launched. It brought many new items so this increases the amount of chests required to get all items. On the other hand, you could open Artifact chests to get expansion items with much better chances so the overall effect might not be so great.
Manhunter finally dropped, so I'm down to 26 missing legendaries. Randi is certainly presenting them at a slower rate than I'd hoped.
Nice. I'm still looking for one of those. I have pretty much every Legendary I want though save for duplicates... so I'm pretty much done and just getting random things for no reason. Just finished having max usable common items and working on finishing off the uncommons (like 9 of every warrior weapon, 12 of every arcane item, 9 of every divine item, etc).
Do you have enough gold to buy those 26 missing Legendaries? If so you're mainly just playing a waiting game at this point.
I have enough for the last 26, plus some duplicates. I think I'm at max usable on all C & U, but I know I'm not full on all the rare items yet. I need to give it a look.
Okay, I gave max usable a look. Uncommon - Missing 1 of the new human skills Rare - Missing 18, all arcane items. Epic - Missing a truckload - 68% done Legendary- Missing a shipload - 25% done I think I'll shoot for completing up to rare in the near future. Getting a full loadout on everything would probably take a few years. And might require buying 2 more Focused Stinkers.
Yeah, I've just been going for max usable in Common / Uncommon at the moment. Granted, I just check every chest and take anything I'm not max at yet and sell the rest. Wish treasure dropped from league chests... gold is really the issue now as I primarily only play league games (I like building for a single map instead of a group).
WOOHOO! Just got a Manhunter from my 1 Epic chest league prize! =) Back to all non-Legendaries. Although there is an Elven Skill (Nimble Scouting that had noLoot tag removed and will be dropping soon -- but that should be easy to get since it is an uncommon.
Is there an easy way to check what / how many items you're missing? I'm kind of interested in knowing how many items I've got, but I don't want to manually count them...
Yep...you can use one of Neoncat's tools (specifically "Collection Analysis"). Note that the author has gone abruptly missing (hope neoncat's okay!), and the online version of the tools isn't available at the moment, but you can still run the tool locally by unzipping the HTML and opening it in your browser.
Ok. Cool. The link you posted isn't actually a link, but I found it here. Apparently I only have 99/289 epics, and 66% of all items. So there you go. I guess it's not surprising that I usually get a new epic from those league chests. I thought I might have a higher percentage of epics, because I've played a fair bit in the past. But I guess epics and legendaries are much easier to come by now compared to when I use to play back in the beta. So I guess the past play time isn't really as item-rich as more recent play time.