tl:dr - when you get a random item (non guaranteed), you have a .5% chance for leg, 1.5% for epic, 4% for rare, 19% uncommon, 75% common. when you get an epic+ guaranteed, there is a 15.5% chance it'll be a legendary. So today while the regular servers were having problems I did some experimenting on the Test Server when it comes to what you can expect to get out of chests. For the experiment, I got a ton of free Pizza from the Sandbox and then opened... 100 Epic Chests 100 Simple Chests I recorded the drop distribution from these chests. It is my suspicion that for the Simple Chest, the drop distribution is a good indicator of what is generated from any chest in the game, which is to say, any time a chest does not guarantee an item, we will see similar results as shown below. I realize that it would be way better to open 1000 chests, but I did not have the time for that. If someone wants to duplicate this experiment, it should be fairly easy to do. Epic Chests (2 epic+ guaranteed, 3 random) Total - 500 items Legendary - 32 items (6.4% of total) Epic - 169 items (33.8% of total) Rare - 12 items (2.4% of total) Uncommon - 56 items (11.2% of total) Common - 231 items (46.2% of total) 31/100 chests had a legendary (31%) 1/100 chests had 2 legendaries (1%) Assuming that none of the random items generated a legendary (more on this later) this means that you have 31/200 chances to get a legendary in place of a guaranteed epic (15.5%) Now, the above numbers are a bit misleading. If you subtract 203 from the total number (the number of epics+) and 200 epics + legendaries, you get... Total - 297 items Legendary - ??? items (impossible to determine where these legendaries came from) Epic - ??? items (impossible to determine where these epics came from) Rare - 12 items (4.0% of total) Uncommon - 56 items (18.9% of total) Common - 231 items (77.8% of total) Simple Chests (2 random) Total - 200 items Legendary - 1 item (.5% of total) Epic - 3 items (1.5% of total) Rare - 8 items (4% of total) Uncommon - 41 items (20.5% of total) Common - 147 items (73.5% of total) 8/100 chests had a rare 3/100 had an epic 1/100 had a leg 54/100 chests had only commons And if you roughly average out the numbers from simple + estimated simple from the epic chest, you get the numbers I listed in the tl;dr. Hope someone finds this helpful too!
The sample size worries me. That can't be a representative sample with so few. 1 more legendary would double it, while 1 less would have made it 0%.
True, but even with infinite money (from the Paypal sandbox), it still takes a long time to open all those chests and log the results. The best thing would be for lots of people to collect and share data. My results are here: https://forums.cardhunter.com/threads/technical-how-rare-is-rare.3359/
Back in Beta Lance and I shared numbers regarding number of legendaries we were getting from epic chests. 100$ buys you 25 chests with change. With multiple tests we averaged 8 legendaries per 25 chests, which matches pretty much with your data. So I think our numbers are pretty close to accurate on that. Simple chests are a bit harder to figure out at the moment. The amount of legendary (and epic) pulls is so low that we need a lot more data points to reliably get down to that number. I wouldn't be surprised if it's below the .5% mark you put. If a legendary costs 2500 gold in the store, I'm going to guess the dev team makes it cost similar or more from simple chest pulls.
I was curious about the simple chests, so now that the test server is back up I thought I'd open a couple hundred and contribute: Simple Chests (2 random) Total - 400 items Legendary - 1 item Epic - 4 items Rare - 16 items Uncommon - 76 items Common - 303 items My luck seems to be rather worse than Lucielle's. For a total cost of 3600 gold, this does not seem to be an effective way to spend your money. I guess you could sell off all the commons and uncommons to get 455 gold back (no treasures from these chests), and technically you would have more epics and legendaries for the money than you would get from Randimar's. But they're random epics and legendaries, instead of the good ones that you would actually buy. For anyone who would like to run the experiment themselves, there's an online counter here: http://flappity.com/online-tally-counter/ that you can use to keep tally as you go. Just add four additional counters so you can have one for each rarity.
One of the biggest issues I'd have with that would be having an extra 400 items to go through and vendor. Randimar's isn't keeping up with my gold acquisition rates, so I'd take the gamble until going down to around 4000g, but not if it also means far more clutter to deal with. If only I could have it spit out ~16 rares, ~4 epics, and ~1 legendary for 3000g, saving a lot of time and effort.
How on earth are you making that kind of money? I have about 400 gold, maybe 500-600 if I sold a bunch of stuff. That's from completing the campaign and a good number of quests and doing the first PvP chest every day. I've purchased exactly three rares and no epics or legendaries, and I think I've been playing quite a bit but I have nothing approaching that kind of money.
And most of the stats in this thread come from the test server, which lets you use fake Paypal accounts where you can give yourself a million dollars.
Legendary and epic treasures, mostly, though a decent number of rares as well. I've got right around 8000g, after blowing about 800g on Randimar's for gear I don't want, in case I might want to use it in the future (he hasn't had anything decent for sale for me yet).
I'm in a similar position to you. I've played heaps. I've got the 2nd rare chest in multiplayer almost every day since launch. I've played through the campaign and replayed several modules several times. I've done the no-party-deaths quest on almost every module. ... and I've got very little money. From memory I've found exactly 3 epic treasures and zero legendary treasures, and I've bought around 4 rare items. I haven't bought any epics or legendaries; and I'm actually a little bit thankful that there are no good legendaries or epics for sale for me this week, because I wouldn't be able to afford them. I think the big thing is that I'm not a club member, and I haven't done any of the treasure hunt modules. I suspect the treasure hunts + club is the major source of in-game wealth that makes players' coffers overflow. All those guaranteed club epic items from the treasure hunts would effectively double my collection of epics and legendaries; and even without the treasure hunts, I've personally missed out on heaps of really good club items, including legendary treasures and highly valuable items such as Blazing Shortsword. So... I think the club is the big thing, and the treasure hunts combined with the club membership is huge. (I actually have 300 unspent pizza which I could have used to get a club membership - but I convinced myself when I first started playing that the club membership was a mistake because it's effectively paying money to shorten the item-collecting part of the game. I figure that if I'm not dissatisfied with the rate I'm finding items already then I shouldn't buy a club membership to speed it up, because in the end that will just reduce the longevity of the game. I still haven't decided what I'll do with my 300 pizza though.)
The club helps, but it's certainly less than double the number of other items. Any time one of the non-bonus-rolled items rolls a quality item, the club's contribution is comparatively weaker. I get 11-20 chests pretty much every single day. There were 2-3 where I stopped around 6 due to being gone all day, but that's about it. If you're comparing that to your 3 wins, I'm getting 3 rares from chest 11, 2 epics from chest 20, and 15 brown chests with gear of variable quality, that you don't get. That's a ton of gear, and it's why I have tons of gold.
I realise that club generally gives less than the normal reward. When I said double, I just meant that the 11 guaranteed epics + 11 guaranteed club epics from the treasure hunts would means that I'd have roughly twice as many epics in total as I have now. (Although I haven't actually counted how many epics I have... I'm just saying that the treasure hunt + club gives an awful lot of epics.)
