[Technical] How rare is Rare?

And there's no such thing as vendor trash... coz the vendors don't pay more than 2g for trash! o if something might conceivably be useful, you keep it...

 

A 5% margin of error sound a bit high, don't you think? So many data points have been collected. Your numbers are very close to Kalin's, and I'm just guessing that if Kalin kept collecting data forever, we'd see your numbers because they are nice and round. But for now, I guess Kalin now has 1410 data points to consider for "No Guaranteed Rarity" chests.

 

1410 isn't actually a very large sample size for a complex randomization system but i should have said "less than plus or minus 5%" - once again i was just throwing out a guess, so the exact number i used is pretty much irrelevant. I just meant to say he's probably close.

 

It's also complicated by the fact that chests are sorted by rarity after being filled. I may have gotten some no-guarantee legendaries, but they got counted in the uncommon or rare slot. My "0" just means I never saw one in a two-item chest (like tempo did) nor have I ever seen two in the same chest (I think someone else saw that once). I'll put a note in my original post.

 

Earlier today I completed the first level of the 'Temple of Terror' module and received the legendary Dwarf Skill 'Superb Toughness' as my second (and last) chest item, the first being an uncommon Elf Skill (Trained Insight). So they CAN drop, and let us all hope that is not a bug!!

 

Sorry, but the above figures seem way off.
3800 pizza = 19,000 gold
Ornate chest = 18 gold for 2 random items
19,000 / 18 = 1055 ornate chests = 2110 random items

Your item total for ornate chests is 32 + 127 + 792 + 2217 = 3168 items. This is a difference of +50 %. The item counts for the other chest types have similar discrepancies. I don't know if this affects your other calculations any, though, as the item counts weren't the main point, just the drop percentages. You might want to check your analysis just in case (unless I've made some huge error of my own, but I can't currently find any).

 

You're right. I expected an extra item due to the club, but as I realized now, you do not get an extra item from purchased chests. That skews the numbers... oops

 

...and with that recalculation done, it is optimal to purchase Epic chests.
$99 will get you:
a) Epic chests: 14 Legendaries, 38 Epics, 3 Rares
b) Magnificient chests: 8 Legendaries, 33 Epics , 111 Rares
c) Ornate chests: 21 Epics, 84 Rares

 

I would much rather take an extra 100+ rares than 6 Legendaries and 5 epics.