So, I was wondering if anyone can remember how unlucky they were in CH? Just this week I've missed a 3+ block 6 times in a row. Three characters with either a Missile Blocks or Hard To Pin Down couldn't block against a Firestorm and then a Whirlwind Enemies right after that. Chance of happening: 0.137% But it gets better (or worse? ). I also couldn't parry 4 times in a row. All I was left with was 2x Parry and got hacked twice, one after another, not triggering any. Chance of happening: 0.077% Kinda' afraid what the next week will bring.. Can anybody beat this?
It's not Card Hunter, but I doubt I'll ever beat the time I got 7 crushing blows in a row with no dodges as a bear tank in WoW when tanking an undead dragon boss. Odds for that are 1 in 585276. Failing parries does get me mad at times but I can't actually remember if I've ever failed 4 times in a row.
I had 4 failed parries in a row once too. 1 or 2 fails in a row is frustrated but 4 is kind of ridiculous it's funny. Me and my opponent had a good laugh over it. Most fun match I've ever had in Koi, too bad he was disconnected just before the end. Damn.
In all my years of gaming my worst luck ever was rolling a 1 seven times in a row on a D20. Needless to say that night was not a good one for my character. In Card Hunter my streaky luck is far less horrible. I think I've failed a Parry twice in a row along with an Officer's Harness. (So only 1/64 bad odds, not close to some of the others.)
I think it's more like my opponent is unlucky; once his block failed five times in a row and he lost, lol.
I was born in a highly-rated first world country just in time to see technology get really interesting, and just before the world ran out of resources and was ruined by climate change. So, yeah, pretty lucky I'd say. Couple of days ago in QD I hit a guy's mage who had lucky charm five times without triggering it. The sixth time, I hit him with part of a triple heal and triggered it, just in time to kill him with the next play.
cantrip-genetic-therapy-teamkill-unlucky. Caribou [99K] shows Herself to be a talented healer Caribou [99K] drew Gene Therapy. Caribou [99K] applies genetic therapy to Hugh. Talented Healer triggered heal for Caribou [99K]. Caribou [99K] recovered 2 HP. Negative Energy Being converted healing to damage. Hugh took 2 Radiation damage. Hugh died. (he got the negative energy being fom gene therapy itself)
Garry definitelly IS cheater. 4+ armor succeed 8 times in row and after 3 failes (1 + 2 to be exact) another 8 times. Chance to happen this once is 0,0039 (= 3,9e-3) Chance to happen 2 times in one map 0,0000152587890625 (= 1,5e-5) Spoiler Left stabs Snick Mail failed! Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 1 Piercing damage. Gary passed. False zaps Snick Mail failed! Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 1 Arcane damage. Gary passed. False zaps Snick Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 0 Arcane damage. Gary passed. False zaps Snick Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 1 Arcane damage. Gary passed. Lie strikes Snick Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 0 Crushing damage. Gary passed. -- Next turn (3 armors on golems) Lie strikes Snick Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Mail failed! Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 0 Crushing damage. Gary passed. Lie strikes Snick Mail failed! Mail failed! Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 1 Crushing damage. Gary passed. Lie strikes Snick Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Mail reduced damage to Snick by 2. Snick took 0 Crushing damage. Gary passed. False zaps Snin Mail reduced damage to Snin by 2. Mail reduced damage to Snin by 2. Snin took 0 Arcane damage. -- Next turn (2 armors on golems) False strikes Snin Mail reduced damage to Snin by 2. Mail reduced damage to Snin by 2. Snin took 0 Crushing damage. Gary passed. Left ably bludgeons Snin Mail reduced damage to Snin by 2. Mail failed! Snin took 3 Crushing damage.
That math sounds off. Firstly does the order matter, because if you always take it into account then making 20 4+ roll results is going to give a very rare result regardless of rather it is 10 successes and 10 fails. That chances of 16 or more successes from 19 rolls which require 4 or more to pass are: ~ 0.22% . In other words it should be very rare and should happen about 1 in 452 times. And that pre-parsed log does mention more then 3 fails.
It is correct that the chance of 8 consecutive successes is 0.39%. I'm not sure what the appropriate value is for that happening twice in a battle. If I'm doing my math correctly, the chance of 18 successes out of 24 flips should be 0.80%. 24!/(18!*6!*2^24)
Grrr, why was this silly topic bumped (3+ years)? Let's suppose Grnyx flips a coin ten times. Zounds! Grnyx gets 9 heads followed by 1 tails. So unlikely!! Only a 1/(2^10) chance! Grnyx is amazed. Well, no not really. Grnyx is just assigning an arbritrary importance to this result after getting it. If Grnyx said that was what Grnyx was going to get beforehand, that would be unlikely. There are 1024 possibilities. One of them must occur. What if Grnyx got 10 heads? 10 tails? 5 heads followed by 5 tails? Are those unlikely? Of course, once one ignores ordering, 10 tails would be less likely than 5 heads and 5 tails. As would getting 9 tails and 1 head. But if one adds up all the "unlikely" events probabilities together, one gets a number that isn't that unlikely (depending on one's idea of what unlikely is). Furthermore, while you are playing a game (of Cardhunter or some other dice game), you are rolling lots of dice over the course of the game. Think of a card, any Cardhunter card. There's 809 of them, so it's unlikely I'll guess the right one, right? Spoiler It's Psychic Blast. Impressive or what? What's that? I'm wrong? Damn. Well, if enough people (acquainted with Cardhunter) read this, one or two might be impressed by my psychic ability (provided they'd stopped reading at the spoiler). What's my point? Well, if you flip a coin 100 times, it's more likely you'll get 10 heads in a row over the course of those flips than if you just flip a coin 10 times (big surprise there). Players make loads and loads of dice rolls over the course of their games, and as such they'll get some "unlucky" streaks. It would actually be more astonishing if they didn't (with enough games). There is nothing remarkable about most of those sets of rolls (Really, I would argue there is nothing remarkable about any of them, other than they exist at all). So, summing up this pointless rant: You are not unlucky (at Cardhunter as regards dice rolls, at least).
Given enough time and forum users, all silly topics will be bumped sooner or later. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_truly_large_numbers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem
