I also did some pulls from some Magnificent Chests. I did this to try to figure out the upgrade rates from Rare to Epic/Legendary. Of 1,000 Items (200 Chests): 590 Common 164 Uncommon 201 Rare 38 Epic 7 Legendary Guaranteed Commons: 800 (4 per chest) Guaranteed Rares: 200 (1 per chest) 1. What of those came from the Guaranteed Commons? Rare+ Upgrades from Common: 46 (201 Rare + 38 Epic + 7 Legendary = 246. 246 - 200 From Epic = 46). Rates are a bit different from the assumed Common Upgrade rates (due to a relatively small sample size): 800 * 3.86% = 30.88 Rare 800 * 1.01% = 8.08 Epic 800 * 0.20% = 1.6 Legendary Total = 40.56 But, in all likely-hood the extra 5.44 items can be divided as follows: 3.86 + 1.01 + 0.20 = 5.07 (3.86 / 5.07) * 5.44 = 4.14. Total = 4.14 + 30.88 = 35.02, round to 35 (1.01 / 5.07) * 5.44 = 1.08. Total = 1.08 + 8.08 = 9.16, round to 9 (0.20 / 5.07) * 5.44 = 0.2. Total = 0.20 + 1.6 = 1.8, round to 2 2. What are the upgrade rates from Rare --> Epic/Legendary given the above Total Epics: 38 Epics from Common: 9 Epics from Rare: 29 (38 - 9) Rare --> Epic Upgrade Rate: 14.5% (29 / 200) Total Legendaries: 7 Legendaries from Common: 2 Legendaries from Rare: 5 (7-2) Rare --> Legendary Upgrade Rate: 2.5% (5 / 200) Any problems with my stats (other than sample size)?
Your math seems sound to me, thanks for the analysis, Lusus! Opening the 1,000 Epic chests took about four hours. It was like playing slots with fake money, cling cling cling and the Skinner rat brain releases opiates. Always a bit exciting to see what turns up .
When I opened the 1000 Epic chests I recorded how many of each different Epic and Legendary item I got. I counted them at 500 chests opened and at 1000 chests opened. Here are those numbers. Code: Qty Ep .5k Ep 1k Lg .5k Lg 1k 0 10 87 36 1 21 2 93 79 2 46 9 28 53 3 51 9 10 32 4 50 23 16 5 31 25 2 6 14 34 7 9 36 8 4 36 9 2 25 10 2 20 11 12 12 4 13 3 14 1 15 0 16 1
How to read the table: At 500 chests opened, there were 10 Epic items I had 0 copies of and 2 Epic items I had 10 copies of. At 1000 chests opened, there were 36 Legendary items I had 0 copies of and 2 Legendary items I had 5 copies of.
If you look at the numbers for a single column, if drawn as a line diagram they follow the classic normal distribution or the bell curve. Bulges at the middle and tapers off at the ends. This is completely as expected for a random phenomenon. You can also see how the middle point shifts upwards as the total quantity of the chests opened rises, again as expected. The shape of the curve doesn't change, you still get less items at the ends and the most at the middle. This explains why you can get several copies of a single Legendary item but still be totally missing many Legendary items after a while and even after high quantitities of chests opened. This is natural behaviour for a random loot system. If you DID get even amounts of all items, that would be extremely unnatural and would tell us that the system is not random at all but completely directed from above. So how do we know whether the system is favourably weighting some items? Simple. Run the experiment again and see if it's the same items you get in high quantitities or different ones. Luckily, I have already done this, on two different test server accounts. I'll go look at the item identity distributions now.
Ok, I looked at which Legendary items I had the most on the two test accounts. They are completely different. On both accounts the items I had most of, I had little or none of them on the other account. According to my data of about 3,000 Epic chests opened on the test server in December 2013 there are no item drop weightings. When you get e.g. a Legendary item from a purchased Epic chest it is completely random which one you get. When I tested, there were 218 different Legendary items. For each and every Legendary drop, there was exactly a 1/218 chance it could be Relic Of St. Darqar.
Some anecdotes from my chest experiment: After opening 500 Epic chests there were still 10 different Epic items I had no copies of at all. I recorded when the missing ones dropped and it looked like this: 21, 21, 22, 23, 23, 24, 26, 27, 29, 40 (the numbers are lots of 25 chests each). The second to last one dropped at lot 29 but the last missing one dropped only 15 chests before I stopped. I had opened 985 Epic chests to get all of the Epic items in the game. There's only a 1/1,000 chance of it taking that long, but that's what happened. After opening about 3,000 Epic chests combined on the two test accounts there are still three Legendary items I have zero copies of on either account. One of them is Relic Of St. Darqar which is pretty funny to anyone who's ever done any low-level adventure grinding. Vibrant Pain could be one of the three (well, 3/218 = 1.4% chance). Think about it. Spend $12,000 opening chests and there's still less than 99% chance you'll get any single Legendary item you desire.
I opened 500 Ornate Chests which contain items from levels 9 to 16. Code: Level Common Uncomm Rare Epic Legend Tot 9 199 50 10 3 262 26,2 % 10 59 15 2 76 7,6 % 11 42 5 2 49 4,9 % 12 125 41 8 4 2 180 18,0 % 13 81 18 6 1 106 10,6 % 14 16 8 4 1 29 2,9 % 15 201 47 3 2 253 25,3 % 16 39 4 2 45 4,5 % Tot 762 188 37 11 2 1000 76,2 % 18,8 % 3,7 % 1,1 % 0,2 % The number of items of each level very closely follow the amounts of items of each level that exist in the game. Many more items of level 9, 12 and 15 exist than of the other levels, thus also most of the chest items come from these levels. The rarity percentages are very close to the ones determined by nearly 5,000 adventure chest items here. Note that bought chests like the Ornate Chests do not contain any treasure. This causes slight differences in the percentages (unless the treasure items have exactly the same rarity distribution as the other items -- which I doubt).
Since legendaries sell for 2500 and Epics for 500, this is almost a bargain for Epics and Legendaries. Problem is it's (of course) random and limited to the levels. Of course, with only two warrior nimble strike weapons falling into this category (Hawlic's Handy Axe and Lochaber Axe), this doesn't look like an option in my continual quest for that card.
Hello all, an interesting thread you have here. I've been studying statistics in uni for a few years now so I'd be glad to take a look here. From data of about 4700 drops from here: http://forums.cardhunter.com/thread...method-to-get-most-gold-pieces-gp.4246/page-7 and from my own data of about 1500 drops I got such numbers: The probabilites of getting an item with the following rarity are, with a 95% probability, within those borders: Common: 0.7434 0.7649 Uncommon: 0.1834 0.2032 Rare: 0.03604 0.04596 Epic: 0.00759 0.01259 Legendary: 0.00051 0.00242 As you can see, the variability is big, especially when looking at legendarys since there are only that many legendary drops recorded. Two more thoughts: http://wiki.cardhuntria.com/wiki/File:Upgrade_Rates.png - here it should be stated, even after many times being updated, that the numbers are only estimates and can vary; we need more data. After adding my numbers from level 6, 7, 12 and 17 adventures to previous ~4700, we have: 4635 commons (75.4%), 1188 uncommons (19.3%), 252 rares (4.10%), 62 epics (1.01%) and 9 legendarys (0.146%). With more data, more accurate numbers could be calculated, so start writing your drop rarities down people
That sounds about right, but I prefer low-to-mid level items, and SP to MP. I used to find whatever I wasn't farming for, so I put together a list of unwanted items and now look for those. Unfortunately, I'm finding them.
Reverse RNG psychology, I love it! I've tried creating altars of dice, candle and incense and considered blood sacrifice. No effect but it was fun .
I agree that there's still a good amount of error in the numbers due to small sample size. I appreciate you adding some more, I'll update the image when I get a few moments. FYI, don't take that image being on the wiki as any sort of indicator that it has official sanction or whatever, it was just a handy place for me to upload to.
I opened a second batch of 500 Ornate Chests. Code: Lv C U R E L Tot % 9 198 54 10 5 2 269 26,9 % 10 58 16 5 1 0 80 8,0 % 11 46 10 2 0 0 58 5,8 % 12 94 39 8 1 0 142 14,2 % 13 89 19 8 0 0 116 11,6 % 14 14 9 0 0 0 23 2,3 % 15 202 49 7 0 1 259 25,9 % 16 45 7 1 0 0 53 5,3 % Tot 746 203 41 7 3 1000 % 74,6 % 20,3 % 4,1 % 0,7 % 0,3 %
Here are the combined numbers for the two Ornate Chest batches (2,000 items total). Code: Lv C U R E L Tot % 9 397 104 20 8 2 531 26,6 % 10 117 31 7 1 0 156 7,8 % 11 88 15 4 0 0 107 5,4 % 12 219 80 16 5 2 322 16,1 % 13 170 37 14 1 0 222 11,1 % 14 30 17 4 1 0 52 2,6 % 15 403 96 10 2 1 512 25,6 % 16 84 11 3 0 0 98 4,9 % Tot 1508 391 78 18 5 2000 % 75,40 % 19,55 % 3,90 % 0,90 % 0,25 %
