[Frivolous Suggestion] - Jackpot

If 3 identical items appear in a small chest (2 normal, 1 club item), play a "Ching! Ching! Ching! sound, flash the word "JACKPOT!" and add a gold piece to the player's account.

Just an rarely recurring low-priority thought.

 

heh, nice idea !

 

I like the idea. It would be a kind of an Easter egg.

But isn't the chance of this actually happening like one in a billion?

 

I think Jarmo could figure the odds, but I see it occasionally.

 

Did I understood correctly.. are you saying that you got 3 identical items? And it has happened more than once?!

If you use a D&D 20-die, chances of getting the "20" three times in a row are 1 in 8000. With at least a hundred of possible items that could appear in those reward slots, getting 3 identical items would be pretty much like winning in a lottery. I mean it has to be something like 1 in a million, probably more

Even if you take item level into an account, there are still a lot of different possibilities. Or are there some variables that I'm missing here?

 

I don't have the exact figures but you can make an educated guess.

80% to get a common item (and not higher rarity)
371 Common Items, so let's say 20 in each level
Let's say loot has a range of 4 levels, so we have around 80 common items that can be picked or a roughly 1% chance to get any specific one.

(1/100)^3 = 1/1000000

So it's roughly a one in a million chance.

Note: You'd need at least a 2.15% chance for a specific item to go down to 1 in 100000.
There's also a really small chance to get 3 identical of higher rarity, which I ignored above.

 

Wow! I've hit those odds a few times, but I still can't find any Firehide Robes.

Edit: It happened first while speed-grinding low levels for a Staff Of The Inferno, so the item pool might be smaller than at higher levels.

 

Well, something weird is definitely happening here...

Lets say it's something like the one in a million chance guestimated by me and calculated by Martin. If you opened lets say 100 chest every day, it would take you, on average, almost 30 years to have this happen once. And since you said you've had it happen "occasionally" and "a few times", you must be the luckiest person in the world and I would run to buy a big pile of lottery tickets right now if I were you

Either the item pool is REALLY small on some low level quests (like you suggested), or you simply remember incorrectly, and this has never actually happened. Maybe the items just looked similar, and you now later remember that they were the same item? Or do you clearly remember where this happened and what the item was?

To me this has never happened. I don't even remember ever getting two identical items. I'm not saying it couldn't have happened, but I don't ever remember seeing it, and I'm pretty sure I would remember had I seen it.

Anyways I like the Jackpot idea very much but it happens so rarely that I don't see the point in spending time implementing it unless devs want to have these kind of Easter egg type of things. But if it was implemented, wouldn't it make more sense to give a big reward like 10k?

 

it happen to me lol. with those comon red robes with resistent hide

 

When I opened about 3,000 Epic chests on the test server, I remember getting 2 identical items maybe six times, 3 never. EDIT: And that was with the 4-item chests, not the 2-item ones Veza talks about.

Calculating the exact jackpot odds for just a single adventure level is job intensive. Here are the approximate base numbers for level 3. In addition the rarity/level item numbers for the items of levels 1-6 from the wiki item statistics are needed. Then count the odds for each item rarity of each level (30 total) and add together the single odds multiplied with the odds of that level/rarity combination. Plenty of basic maths to get there.

 

Note that for Diamonds of the Kobolds and The White Star, each item in the chest has a 50% chance of being Amber Fragments or Amethyst Shards; the club reward uses the normal loot table.

Also:

(And holy crud is it a pain to quote locked threads.)

 

That figures. The drop that triggered the post was 3 Amethyst Shards found speed farming the kobold dungeons. I usually have at least 2 pages of common shards after a long farming session. The first happened while farming the level two dungeons, but I don't remember which item. It just struck me as funny. I used to work slot machine maintenance part-time, and for an instant expected bells or lights when it showed up. I'm pretty sure there was another, but I didn't get the same, "Damn, I'm going to have to fix this" feeling as the first time.

 

The proposed Jackpot effect would both thematically and functionally actually fit very well the two level 6 adventures with the exceptional loot tables where it would almost exlusively show up. The "Ching! Ching! Ching!" would complement very nicely the amount of jewels and precious metals that turn up there.

 

I'll leave calculating the odds to someone else, but I know it's a very rare occurrence.

I currently have 53 legendaries in my inventory, and I've sold several others. I've also bought some. Due to my farming methods I've found most of them in small chests. So in my case I'm guessing it has equated to roughly 14 'small chest' legendaries per jackpot. YMMV. I spend an awful lot of time grinding, and I'm still looking for the ever elusive Firehide Robes, so the L6 range is where I do most of it.

It may be too rare to bother with, but I think it would be a really neat Easter Egg.

 

Actually, the problem with the calculations thus far is that you were calculating the odds of getting 3 of the same PARTICULAR item, rather than of any item. Since the first item doesn't actually matter, Martin's simplified calculation would suggest something more like a 1/10000 chance. Uncommon drops and above would only constitute between 1.5 and 2% of the occurrences, which would only bring it to 1/9800. Still relatively long odds, but definitely conceivable. With the biases on missions like the kobold ones, I can definitely see it happening a good bit.

It would be cool, albeit also very low priority. Jon can do it in his spare time.

 

You are absolutely right. I cannot believe I made a dumb mistake like that. It is as you said, the first item doesn't matter, so the chances are closer to that 1 in 10.000. This is good because I though we had pathological liars here because 1 in a million chance happening multiple times would be pretty far fetched

 

As far as I know I'm not pathological, but I am a Texan.

 

Here's a non-treasure example:



(from Into the Black Forest)

 

We heard you like boots, so we sent you some boots so you can boot your boots to boot.

 

Wow.. I cannot believe I was this lucky! I just did the Lair of the Yellow Dragon and look what I looted.



I didn't get the club membership though because I don't think I need 3 Vibrant Pains.