So on the test server $99 = 3800 pizza = 25 chests +50 pizza left over lot 1 = 4 x legendary , 48 x epic, 7 x rare, 19 x uncommon, 48 x common Nothing great in the legdendaries or the epics lot 2 = 12 x legendary, 39 x epic, 0 x rare, 18 x uncommon, 56 x common Captain Cedric's Boots , Staff Of The Artic lot 3 = 9 x legendary, 42 epic, 2 x rare, 13 x uncommon, 59 common Foval's Chain, Staff Of Blazing Sparks lot 4 = 9 x legendary, 41 epic, 4 x rare, 15 x uncommon, 55 common Beater , Larkin's Orb, Farzil's Plerplexing Horn lot 5 = 7 x legendary, 43 epic, 0 x rare, 12 x uncommon, 63 common Big Haul! Bolg's Club Of Evasion, Bynzer's Black Spear, Moredecai's Staff Of Magma, The Hackmaster, Staff Of Burning Ice lot 6 = 5 x legendary, 46 x epic, 5 x rare, 12 x uncommon, 47 x common meh & meh lot 7 = 5 x legendary, 54 x epic, 5 x rare, 14 x uncommon, 56 x common Firehide Robes
So... to increase the likelihood of getting the really good stuff, the extremes get polarized and the rare drops the least frequently? That seems weird to me. I really hope people don't open these because there is a specific rare they were after. Huh.
The chest contains 2 at-least-epic items and 3 at-least-common items. The 2 epics can't downgrade to rare and the 3 commons rarely upgrade to rare.
Adding lots 6 and 7 to the mix: Legendary: 0.291 Epic: 1.789 Rare: 0.131 Uncommon: 0.589 Common: 2.194
I opened 25 epic chests on the test server. lot 1: 7 x legendary, 44 x epic, 4 x rare, 19 x uncommon, 51 x common
Another batch opened. lot 2: 7 x legendary, 44 x epic, 5 x rare, 19 x uncommon, 50 x common Heh, almost the same numbers as lot 1.
Thanks for the info. The numbers above are a bit off (Lot #1 adds up to 126, Lot #4 adds up to 124, Lot #6 adds up to 115, Lot #7 adds up to 134). I assumed all the variance was at the bottom (that you kept better tracks of Rares+). Given that, it looks like: -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Epic to a Legendary is between 10.6% and 13.4% (towards the 13.4% side) -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Common to an Uncommon is 19.6% -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Common to an Rare is between 4.4% -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Common to an Epic is something less than 2.7% -I won't guess on the chance to upgrade from Common to Legendary. Others have estimated it at 0.2% The reason that the chances for Epic/Legendary aren't certain is that there are chances for both the guaranteed epics and the guaranteed commons to upgrade to them. Of course it's much more likely that an Epic upgrade to Legendary than a Common. Here are my figures, feel free to check my math.
After incorporating Jarmo's numbers, chances change to: -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Epic to a Legendary is between 11.3% and 13.6% (towards the 13.6% side) -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Common to an Uncommon is 21.1% -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Common to an Rare is 4.1% -The chance to upgrade from a guaranteed Common to an Epic is something less than 2.1% So, if we wanted to have some easy rounded numbers we could go with: -Guaranteed Epic to Legendary: 13% -Guaranteed Common to Uncommon: 20% -Guaranteed Common to Rare: 04% -Guaranteed Common to Epic: 02% (Estimate) With other chest types we could calc: Common --> Epic (Non estimate) Common --> Legendary Uncommon --> Rare Uncommon --> Epic Uncommon --> Legendary Rare --> Epic Rare --> Legendary Anyone willing to do something similar for 'Magnificent Chest'(s) and/or one of the common chests?
Thank you for pointing that out Jarmo. So, adjusting my figures above to use what you guys have calculated as the chances to upgrade from Common --> Epic and Legendary And adding in your Guaranteed Common %s.
I'm no math genius, but assuming the ratio of the item rarities stays the same, a guaranteed uncommon would be: 79.38% uncommon 15.71% rare 4.11% epic 0.81% legendary Using the same method, a guaranteed rare would be: 76.13% rare 19.92% epic 3.94% legendary What do you think, do the numbers look right?
I don't know if we can make that assumption. I don't know if the system is: SYSTEM #1 An item starts at the guaranteed rarity, then rolls for a (consistent for that rank) chance to upgrade, rolls for a chance to upgrade again, etc... If it's this system each chance of upgrade could be constant, no matter what guaranteed item we started at. SYSTEM #2 An item starts at the guaranteed rarity and rolls against a rate table to determine which level it jumps straight to. This system wouldn't necessarily have the same rates OR SOME OTHER SYSTEM One thing that makes me doubt System #1 is that the Epic--> Legendary upgrade rate appears to be approx 16.5% for items that started as guaranteed commons (.2 / (.2+1.01)) and 13.3% for items that started as Epic. The rate isn't constant.
We'd have to have far more chests to eliminate more statistical variance, especially with the small number of Legendaries. Then again I failed my Statistics 101 in the university. In any case, my wild-ass guess is it's system #1 and the numbers we have are close enough. If somebody wants to prove something more definite they'd better be ready to grind a few million battles or ask the devs.
I opened one thousand Epic chests on the test server (40 lots of 25 chests): 355 x legendary, 1,682 x epic, 129 x rare, 600 x uncommon, 2,234 x common
Thanks so much Jarmo, that must have taken forever. A few thoughts: 1. Your stats indicate that prior stats on Common to Epic/Legendary stats seem to be accurate Prior Stats Common --> Epic: 1.01% Common --> Legendary: 0.20% Your stats show 37 Upgrades from Common to Epic/Legendary 355 Legendary + 1,682 Epic = 2,037 2,037 - 2,000 from Guaranteed Epics = 37 Upgrades from Common 3,000 Guaranteed Common * 1.01% = 30.3 3,000 Guaranteed Common * 0.20% = 6.0 Total = 30.3 + 6.0 = 36.3 (Close to the 37 Actual) 2. Assuming the Common Upgrade Stats are accurate, Epic --> Legendary Upgrade chance = Between 16.56% and 17.45% Just using your stats above Total Legendaries: 355 Legendaries from Commons: 6.0 (3,000 *0.20%) Legendaries from Epics: 349 Upgrade Rate: 17.45% (349 / 2,000) Using Combined Stats from Various Sources Total Legendaries: 430 Legendaries from Commons: 7.7 (3,825 *0.20%) Legendaries from Epics: 422.3 Upgrade Rate: 16.56% (422.3 / 2,550) I'd personally lean towards just using the pure results from your latest pulls as the 'official' number for our estimates. It would eliminate any changes between versions. 17.45% is a prettier number also . Any objections to my stats?
